Civilization is about to go through a profound and wrenching change. The Age of Oil is coming to an end. It most likely will be followed by the Age of Coal returning and then the Age of Methane Hydrate and Oil Shale but the transition from cheap oil to the next major energy source or combination of sources will not be a smooth one.

The liquid nature of gasoline and diesel and the power/mass ratio has led to civilization as we know it today. That is about the change. Our energy will be much more expensive. This will cause fundamental changes in our economy and our society. If it costs more to grow food and it costs more to haul food it will cost more to eat. And that is just the beginning.

Oil and gas are used for a whole list of things basic to our way of life. Not only is it used for fuel for transport of everything that moves from point A to point B. We use oil-based fertilizers to grow our food. Plastic products are based on petroleum. This Petroleum based products List has a partial listing of products made from oil and natural gas. You can see the extent to which global peak oil (and natural gas) will affect the country and the economy. It is not that oil is going to run out. That won't happen for quite some time. It is just that the age of cheap oil is over. Once we hit the peak, and that has been predicted as being in 2008-10 the price of oil will begin to go up in a serious way. Just as you don't have to loose all the water in your body to suffer from dehydration (10-15% will do) the peak of oil will cause a serious restructuring of our economy. And some serious economic and political pain.

By 2030 the world's demand for oil is expected to rise from 85 million barrels a day to 120 million barrels of oil per day. We would need to increase production by about 1.1 million barrels per day, about the amount Algeria produced in 2003, each year beyond 2010, to keep up with demand. Once global peak oil arrives and the shock begins to ripple through the economy, the law of supply and demand in times of scarcity and hysteria will show its ugly face. Or we could start now to determine the best possible mixture of the available energy generators.

ENERGY RELATED CHANGES WE WILL SEE

Alternative energy sources like coal liquefaction, solar, wind, plant-based oil, hydroelectric, nuclear and natural gas will fall short of compensating for the shortages of oil and its power/mass ratio, driving the price of energy up. There won't be enough time to convert to the next major energy source (Coal Liquefaction most likely) before the effects of global peak oil arrives. The high price of oil will seriously impact the ability of society to shift to different types of energy sources.

Conservation: People will make less trips, plan trips better, drive less and carpool. Smaller cars such as the Cooper, will be in demand as will electric cars and hybrid cars. You will have a hard time selling a large SUV. People will vacation closer to home or at home changing the travel industry. The cities of this nation will finally synchronize their traffic lights. America will standardize its gasoline.

More use of mass transit: city buses, car and van pooling, Inter-city trains and buses, corporate worker transport. Systems will have to be upgraded. Eventually cities along rail lines may experience growth as more people switch to mass transit. There could be a 5% or greater reduction in voltage to homes and possibly businesses. There could be rolling blackouts. Gasoline shortages. People on the lower economic rungs will give up their cars and use mass transit, bicycles and tricycles for hauling; both pedal and electric. More people will rent out rooms to help cover expenses and there will be more people to rent them. More people will live without air conditioning. In poor areas there will be more deaths from heat in the summer and more deaths from cold in the winter.

Recycling will become a priority as the high price of oil drives up manufacturing costs. Taxes may go up. Government will encourage energy savings. Airlines will go through consolidation. Pensions for aging/disabled population will be reduced or discontinued by many companies.

Heating oil shortages may cause a greater migration to the Sun Belt.

Ships may use modern sails as an auxiliary source of power to cut fuel costs.

The middle class may shrink with more people sinking into poverty as the ripples of global peak oil flow through the economy. The rich will be not quite as rich and the poor, as the price of food rises, will be severely stressed. Later, as we go down the back side of the slope, government rationing may be imposed.

Unless we begin to move in a planned way into the next combination of energy sources there could be a decline in International trade, tariff wars, a transitional recession or even a depression. Look for numerous guerilla wars, coups, and conflicts in oil producing areas. The War on Terror will still be with us.

June 2005 Boone Pickens, B P Capitol Management, on an interview on CNN said he doesn't believe we can produce more than 85 million barrels of oil per day with today's infrastructure.

Global Peak Oil T-shirts @ http://www.cafepress.com/peakoilaware/

GLOBAL PEAK OIL

One prediction

FROM http://www.gaianxaos.com/SpecialReports_files/oilcurve.htm

ARTICLES

When oil peaks ...

The fall of the House of Saud

The end of oil is closer than you think

GLOBAL PEAK OIL LINKS

RESOURCE http://healthandenergy.com/the_oil_crash_and_you.htm

International Monetary Fund says that surging demand and falling supply could spark "permanent oil shock" International Monetary Fund Report

http://www.peakoil.net/

http://www.gaianxaos.com/SpecialReports_files/oilcurve.htm

http://www.durangobill.com/Rollover.html

www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net

http://www.peakoil.org/

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/

http://www.oilcrisis.com/

www.globalpublicmedia.com

http://www.museletter.com/archive/cia-oil.html

Oil Crisis Changes

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2005/03/peak_oil_means.php

http://informationclearinghouse.info/article8608.htm

US Financial Crash

http://www.macleans.ca/topstories/world/article.jsp?content=20050307_101541_101541

Coal liquefaction

COAL

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal#Liquefaction

LIQUEFACTION PROCESS

http://www.cogeneration.net/Coal_Liquefaction.htm

SHANGHI PLANT

http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0CYH/is_15_6/ai_89924477

http://www.peabodyenergy.com/LearningCenter/Liquefaction.html

BTU CONVERSION

http://www.peabodyenergy.com/LearningCenter/BTUConversion.html

TRACK ENERGY RELATED BILLS COAL ON LIQUEFACTION

http://www.govtrack.us/congress/subjects.xpd?type=crs&term=Coal%20liquefaction

Oil Shale

Attempts to extract shale oil in the 1970's in the western US, some of the richest deposits in the world, cost several billion dollars and failed to produce an economically viable process. Many countries have quantities of oil shale: Australia, Brazil, Canada, china, Estonia, Russia, Scotland, South Africa, Spain Sweden and the United States of America which has 62% of the potentially recoverable oil shale. Oil shale (between 5 and 25 percent of the rock) must be crushed and heated to 500 degrees Celsius to be changed into an oil-like liquid which must be processed but can produce an oil better than the lowest grade of oil produced from pumping. Immense amounts of shale spoil in the form of coarse sand is left behind from the mining which must be large scale. The process can use up to 4 barrels of water for each barrel of oil produced. ExxonMobil's world oil production forecast showed no major contribution from "oil shale" up to 2030.

Production of oil from tar sands requires between 400 and 1,000 cubic feet of natural gas per barrel of oil produced, depending on the extraction method used. Natural gas production, despite a near doubling of drilling activity, is flat or decreasing both in Canada and in the United States--which has prompted prices to triple over the past few years.

Oil Shale.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale

http://emd.aapg.org/technical_areas/oil_shale.cfm

Oil Shale WorldEnergy.org ARCHIVE

http://www.worldenergy.org/wec-geis/publications/reports/ser/shale/shale.asp

Shale Oil News

http://www.energybulletin.net/news.php?cat=2

Oil Caveat Empty

http://www.thebulletin.org/article.php?art_ofn=mj05cavallo

Oil prices prompt another look at shale

http://www.energybulletin.net/3315.html

Don't Blame the Oil Sheikh's

http://counterpunch.com/lindorff04092005.html

Methane Hydrate

The volume of energy that is stored in methane hydrate deposits exceeds that of the world's coal, oil, and conventional natural gas combined. Estimates are that twice as much energy is available from methane hydrates as all of the world’s coal, oil, and conventional gas resources. It may take 30-50 years before we see significant worldwide energy coming from methane hydrate as most is in deep marine environments and it occurs as a solid. Countries with unique economic and/or political motivations could begin mining within 10 years.

Worldwide Estimates of Gas Hydrates: cubic feet

Oceanic: 30,000 to 49,100,000 x 10¹²
Continental: 5,000 to 12,000,000 x 10¹²

http://web.mala.bc.ca/earle/scie403/ocean-floor-hydrate.htm

http://geology.usgs.gov/connections/mms/joint_projects/methane.htm

Methane Hydrate Map

http://marine.usgs.gov/fact-sheets/gas-hydrates/title.html

Blake Ridge Estimates

http://www.netl.doe.gov/scngo/Natural%20Gas/Hydrates/about-hydrates/blake-ridge.htm

CRS Report to Congress

http://www.ncseonline.org/NLE/CRSreports/energy/eng-46.cfm?&CFID=1383598&CFTOKEN=41775094

Global peak oil will radically change our society. We need decisive action from our government. What we will get is politics.

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