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  • File : 1308864647.jpg-(141 KB, 1020x870, ss08_exponential_growth_large.jpg)
    141 KB technological singularity Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)17:30 No.3273835  
    The technological singularity will occur in the year 2045.

    ITT: what it will be like, what it looks like etc..
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)17:32 No.3273846
    >implying energy will remain cheap enough to reach a 'singularity'

    Dohohohoho. Seriously, hoping for the 'singularity' is the same as hoping for the rapture.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)17:33 No.3273852
    >>3273835
    According to that graph we can already simulate a rat brain. Did it come to pass, oh Messiah?
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)17:34 No.3273857
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    >>3273846

    thou shalt not call thy prophet false
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)17:37 No.3273871
    >>3273846

    Regardless, we will all be dead before it makes any significant difference to the average human.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)17:38 No.3273884
         File1308865126.jpg-(162 KB, 1189x924, ParadigmShiftsFrr15Events.jpg)
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    >>3273846
    Except there is clear evidence for the technological singularity but not for the rapture. GTFO.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)17:42 No.3273913
         File1308865364.jpg-(84 KB, 1053x624, brainscales2.jpg)
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    >>3273852
    Of course

    http://nextbigfuture.com/2009/11/ibm-has-achieved-cat-scale-brain.html
    >IBM Has Achieved Cat Scale Brain Simulation Which are 15 times the scale of Previous Rat Brain Simulations
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)17:50 No.3273956
         File1308865841.jpg-(92 KB, 874x718, 129876374847.jpg)
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    >>3273871
    No, it will affect instantly almost everyone.

    I have my own theory on what it will look like. I assume there are other people who share my opinion. The first to qualify for the technological singularity will be a synergy between human and computer intelligence. Innovation, invention, creativity and novelty will increase at such a high rate that everyday we will make advances that used to take decades. Technology will truly be indistinguishable from magic. We will reach the point where technological acceleration is approaching infinity and nearly everything is possible. It will be a MILLION times better than an orgasm all day every day.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)17:54 No.3273971
    >>3273913
    >only 83 times slower than real-time

    Oh boy I can't wait for the singularity. Because then I can replace my brain for a computer and start thinking VEEEEEEEERY SLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOWLY
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)18:00 No.3274002
    >>3273971
    dumb bitch, it will get faster with time
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)18:02 No.3274012
    >>3273971

    However after a while, it'll be 41.5 times slower than real time, then 20.75, then 10, then 5, then 2.5, then 1.25 and finally 0.75, etc. Seriously, that's just about a decade of progress. After two decades you'll be sitting on 1000 times faster than real time.

    Seriously, by the time you're 20 years older than you are today, computers will be thousands of times faster than they are today and 40 years down the road they'll be millions of times faster. Shit like that does have an impact on things. I mean by 2020 1Gbit connections will be as common in many places as 1Mbit is today.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)18:03 No.3274015
    >>3273971

    Buuuttt nooooott diiiiiee!!!!!

    Also you could always upgrade the container of your conciousness as new models are developed.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)18:05 No.3274027
         File1308866717.gif-(90 KB, 490x591, 1210685881ayn_rand.gif)
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    >>3274012

    >20 years
    >1,000 times more fast

    Keep going, son.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)18:08 No.3274040
    >>3273835 Exponential growth, logarithmic Plot

    => Plot, Y U NO straight line??
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)18:09 No.3274044
    >>3274002
    And you're being dense. IBM paraded their cat brain simulation as if it was a huge achievement, when they could have done it years ago at only 150x reduced speed, say.

    So back to the point: at what speed can we simulate rat brains right now? We should have crossed over into faster than reality going by OP's graph.
    >> Colonel Coffee Mug !phJ7yIcs.Q 06/23/11(Thu)18:14 No.3274059
         File1308867254.jpg-(410 KB, 1276x900, 1305155925428.jpg)
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    >>3273971
    The difference is that the brain is only powerful due to its massive parallelism: Neurons, after all, take whole milliseconds to fire. Computers are a lot faster but flat surfaces and single-processors, even this "multi-core" stuff is not true parallelism. The moment we develop parallel computation and 3D printing of microchips is both the moment computing power reaches unthought of levels and the moment heat radiation becomes and actual problem rather than "I'll troll /g/ by frying marshmallows on my NVIDIA".

    >>3273913
    Hoax. They have the computing power to run a few billion of these little "dots", but neither their properties or their structure resembles that of a cat in any way. Cat uploads are far off.

    We have, on the other hand, simulated a nice portion of a mice's brain, their cerebellum, by duplicating the structure and abstracting away some of the behaviour of the neurons, and it showed cerebellum-like behaviour. We'll then upload a whole rat, and I expect it to show extremely rat-like behaviour, ie fucking awesome.
    I think mind uploading is not going to be a problem with the brain stuff; scanning technology keep increasing it's resolution and eventually you might as well follow Anders Sandberg's advice: Freeze the brain, laminate it, scan with electron microscope. (Freezing a brain creates cracks and there is no activity to record, but you get the idea). I think the biggest problem of mind uploading will be defeating this brain/body dualism (Rather than mind/body dualism, which is so 20th century): That is, a thought can cause the heart to pump faster, feeding more Oxygen to the brain, pH and hormones can affect the way neurons work, et cetera. You get the idea. Isolating a brain and simulating it might be good enough, might not.
    >> Colonel Coffee Mug !phJ7yIcs.Q 06/23/11(Thu)18:14 No.3274060
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    >>3274059

    On the subject of AI, well, I never really thought of strong AI designed from the ground up by humans as being plausible, at least not within this century. I know AI has not failed and a lot of things we use today are basically AI, it's that when we discover a part of the brain's behaviour people go "But that's just simple math! I can't possibly be consciousness!". Maybe it's an incremental process, and there'll be a point where we can describe consciousness, or perhaps the part cannot conceive the whole and we cannot create posthuman or human-equivalent AI through any mean other than artificial evolution of sub-human AI's.

    So, His Metamajesty Ray Kurzweil is not that far gone, except that he is.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)18:15 No.3274061
    >>3274040

    Because it's going slightly faster.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)18:15 No.3274066
    >>3274044

    >So back to the point: at what speed can we simulate rat brains right now?
    at full speed
    >> EK FAN CLUB 06/23/11(Thu)18:18 No.3274076
         File1308867527.jpg-(73 KB, 550x413, eggs.jpg)
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    >>3274059
    >"I'll troll /g/ by frying marshmallows on my NVIDIA".
    I believe the meme is frying eggs on a Fermi
    >> Colonel Coffee Mug !phJ7yIcs.Q 06/23/11(Thu)18:20 No.3274080
    >>3274076

    Don't go on /g/ much, but if you identified it you got the point.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)18:21 No.3274084
    >>3274060
    You infidel! You will burn in the singularity hell!
    >> Colonel Coffee Mug !phJ7yIcs.Q 06/23/11(Thu)18:23 No.3274092
         File1308867807.gif-(50 KB, 303x268, 1308761790894.gif)
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    >>3274084

    Pure Transhumanists > Singularitarians
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)18:23 No.3274094
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    >>3273835
    is there an up-to-date graph of this?
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)18:27 No.3274104
    >>3274059
    >We'll then upload a whole rat, and I expect it to show extremely rat-like behaviour, ie fucking awesome.

    Wouldn't this be immoral? Creating a mind with no body and no external stimulus. It would be a mind trapped in a personal hell.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)18:33 No.3274126
    >>3274104
    Something similar has been already done

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QPiF4-iu6g&feature=related
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)18:37 No.3274143
         File1308868652.png-(158 KB, 600x450, Projected_Performance_Developm(...).png)
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    >>3274094
    http://www.top500.org/lists/2011/06/performance_development

    Supercomputers CURRENTLY has computing capacity (measured in operations per second) on par with a human brain.

    Only the appropriate software is missing.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)18:41 No.3274154
    >do 9001 calculations per second
    >too bad it can only calculate math problems and nothing else

    OMG SINGULARITY SO COOOOOOLLL
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)18:43 No.3274165
    >>3274143
    You'd need a perfectly efficient programmer to emulate the human brain with resources equal to it. (Assuming we the structure and dynamics of it, which we don't.) Aim for 10x the power/storage and we might be able to. Why though?

    Enough with the singularity faggotry. If you upload yourself how do you propose paying for electricity or maintenance. By devoting resources to problems?

    Windows ME failed, and so will you.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)18:54 No.3274202
         File1308869681.png-(116 KB, 399x278, 1288421815992.png)
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    >>3274126
    Is this legit? Man that mouse must have been confused as fuck. "where are my legs? why do I have wheels? why don't I have whiskers?"

    I'd love to see a human brain connected to an Asimo or some other more advanced robot. Perhaps I'll donate my brain to science for just that purpose.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)18:57 No.3274211
    >>3274165
    >Aim for 10x the power/storage
    Human brain runs on 20 watts; we currently have more than 10x necessary power.
    We currently probably have 10x necessary storage

    I presume you meant computing power.
    10x gains in computing power (for super computers) are made roughly every ~3 years.
    CONSULT PREVIOUS GRAPH/SITE.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)19:04 No.3274224
    >>3274202
    >Is this legit?
    Well, not literally. There's one comment that says it well:

    It's not an actual rats brain. It's just rat brain cells they took from a rats brain. Rat brain cells in the experiment make a mini neural net that can control the robot.

    So the rat doesn't probably have a consciousness anymore
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)19:06 No.3274236
         File1308870402.jpg-(380 KB, 800x600, 1308709392531.jpg)
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    >>3274224
    >implying rats have consciousness to begin with.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)19:08 No.3274246
    >>3274236

    Oh boy here we go.jpg
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)19:09 No.3274250
    >>3274211
    >>3274143
    >Only the appropriate software is missing.

    Yes and no. A brain is more than just an adding machine, but an adding machine is all a computer is. We also need a better computational architecture to host the program - the idea that x86 is appropriate to host a brain is laughable. The search for such is part of cognitive computing.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)19:19 No.3274284
    Every time ray kurzweil blows a load, throngs of poorly educated futurists crawl from the woodwork to lap up his cum.

    Capitalism won't just die you ignorant fucks. You'll have to pay for whatever singularity goods you want just like an iphone.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)19:21 No.3274292
    >>3274092

    Deus Ex: HR: Best representation of what life might be like in 30 years.

    Class division is worse, nobody can afford the wonders of technology just like today, and as a result society is turning on technology.

    We don't have a bright future. We're just hairless apes,
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)19:23 No.3274303
    >>3273835
    I might be a bit noobish here to ask for this but i have done reading all comments .. Whats is a most precice definition for singularity? And about the computer evolving part , moores law say that cpu gets twice a big/fast every 2 years.. Only question is how long till we reach physical limitations http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Transistor_Count_and_Moore%27s_Law_-_2011.svg
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)19:26 No.3274313
    FYI: Every graph kurzweil makes is completely made up and subjective. It has no valid merit.
    >> Inurdaes !V1sPhobos. 06/23/11(Thu)19:26 No.3274314
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    >>3274284
    Every time poorly educated self-labelled realists crawl from the woodwork to begin arguments against near post-scarcity, I have to clean up their objectivist cum.

    Capitalism won't just die you ignorant fuck, it will be transcended. As autolabour replaces humans in the workforce, there will be huge unemployment which will only continue to worsen until there simply isn't enough consumers to support it anymore. With the new technologies that continuously emerge that will reduce scarcity in all facets of life, capitalism will transition into something superior.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)19:27 No.3274318
    >>3274303

    Singularity is Nerd Rapture.

    Quid Pro Quo.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)19:27 No.3274323
    >>3274292
    >>ofc they will afford it . Demand and request you dont build something if you cant sell it or people cant afford it and you always try to make it massive for example lowering the prices
    >> ႼЋïŁႣƧტƿḩЄƦṥ !Scone2booQ 06/23/11(Thu)19:28 No.3274326
    >>>/x/
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)19:29 No.3274329
    >>3274303
    >precice definition for singularity
    technological advancement increases normally
    ..suddenly MAGIC!!!!!
    now we're all self aware robots
    ..suddenly MORE MAGIC!!!
    now the entire Universe is a sentient machine

    the magic is irrelevant because as processing power increases, then naturally FUCK SCIENCE
    >> motherfucker 06/23/11(Thu)19:29 No.3274332
    why the fuck are people looking forward to this? Doesn't it horrify you that you're being shrunk into a computer? Seriously people, what the fuck. This is just another example of mad science gone awry.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)19:30 No.3274333
    >>3273846

    Ramen.
    >> ႼЋïŁႣƧტƿḩЄƦṥ !Scone2booQ 06/23/11(Thu)19:33 No.3274344
    >>3274314
    >As autolabour replaces humans in the workforce,
    But that already happened. Are you ignorant of history? How many people do you know that are farm workers or factory assemblers? They've almost all been replaced by automation.

    >there will be huge unemployment which will only continue to worsen until there simply isn't enough consumers to support it anymore.
    And then that didn't happen -- AT ALL. Instead the market forces AS THEY MUST, forced people into NEW kinds of jobs, particularly in the service sector; jobs that never existed before. So it will always be. So it must be.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)19:36 No.3274358
    The rate of increase in processor speeds is going down quickly.
    We are constrained by the speed of light, and thus can't make them faster.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)19:37 No.3274361
    >>3274314

    >As autolabour replaces humans in the workforce,

    Let's see,
    Robot:
    Cost to construct: at least a few thousand if not a few million dollars depending on the complexity of the job. Full human capabilities will cost at least a few mill per robot.
    Cost to maintain: Gotta replace parts, gotta service and perform regular maintenance. have to have experienced engineers on payroll to fix the robots.
    Cost to pay for living expenses: nothing

    Human:
    Cost to make: Nothing
    Cost to maintain: Nothing
    Cost to pay: 3 cents an hour.

    How will replacing people with robots ever be cost effective? There will always be underdeveloped countries for capitalistic societies to exploit.

    Pretend you're talking to a board of directors who only care about the bottom line. Sell them on shifting their workforce to automatons. Watch them laugh if you mention the "benefits to humanity"

    Humans and human society do not work like you think. You're thinking "This is what i'd do if i had all the power". You don't. Greedy psychopaths do. They run the whole world. How are you going to convince them?
    >> Inurdaes !V1sPhobos. 06/23/11(Thu)19:39 No.3274368
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    >>3274344
    >Look, robots already took over some jobs, and those people displaced went into other ones!

    >There's NO chance of technology becoming to cheap and efficient to displace 50% of the population with not enough adequate work to replace it for the relatively uneducated workers. Absolutely no chance at all.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9Fxp3HK6DI
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)19:40 No.3274369
    >>3274361
    >Cost to make: Nothing
    >Cost to maintain: Nothing
    no, that's not how humans work
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)19:41 No.3274372
    >>3274368

    >he thinks people will just accept and trust robot cars

    No chance in hell.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)19:43 No.3274380
    >>3274369

    How much does it cost THE COMPANY to make a human? Are sweatshops in vietnam really giving complete and free healthcare to their 3 cent an hour salary men?

    Robots take money to make. There will always be humans willing to work at whatever rate. Shit, 86% of the world makes less money than a mcdonalds employee.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)19:44 No.3274383
    >>3273835
    Thing is, our mind isn't just a number of calculations per second.

    If a computer can beat a world-class go player, I'm interested.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)19:46 No.3274391
    >>3274380
    Most professions can easily be replaced with a machine that costs a few thousand dollars. Or even a hundred thousand to two hundred thousand dollars.

    Think of all the paychecks you'd have to pay for them, not to mention medical bills and insurance or them possibly not coming in.

    That's all in the richer countries. The poorer ones will always find benefit in cheap human labor.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)19:47 No.3274392
    >>3273835
    Light is far from being a problem m8
    What you are loking for is lengh of hertz..
    Let me define
    1herts is equal to 360.000km per second
    10 herts is equal to 3600km per second
    Now take a look at a 2.8 gigahertz procecor and imagine how short the circuit wires are thats where physics comes and fuck things up by saying to much heat
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)19:47 No.3274393
    >>3274383
    well apparently in like 30 years we will just use the conciousness of the best Go player as a computer
    >> Inurdaes !V1sPhobos. 06/23/11(Thu)19:48 No.3274394
    >>3274372
    http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/thinking-tech/google-8217s-self-driving-car/5445
    >Google announced this weekend that it’s been building robotic cars that have been driving themselves around California — down curvy Lombard Street in San Francisco, across the Golden Gate Bridge, along the Pacific Coast Highway, around Lake Tahoe and from Google’s Mountain View headquarters to Santa Monica (a 350-mile trip). So far, the cars have logged over 140,000 miles.

    http://www.technewsworld.com/story/emerging-tech/71013.html?wlc=1289109166&wlc=1301304426&wl
    c=1308872729
    >So far, the only mishap the self-driving car has encountered was getting rear-ended at a traffic light.

    Oh, and two hours ago:
    http://www.geek.com/articles/news/nevada-passes-law-giving-self-driving-cars-the-ok-20110623/
    >Back in May we told you about Google’s foray into self-driving cars. Google lobbied the Nevada state legislature to pass a law making it legal for driverless cars to operate on public streets. Lo and behold, Nevada has complied and passed one of two laws Google had lobbied to get passed.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)19:48 No.3274395
    >>3274383
    Enough processing power would lead to a computer being able to beat a worldclass player no problem.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)19:50 No.3274402
    >>3274380
    >How much does it cost THE COMPANY to make a human?
    it doesn't matter who pays for it, someone does. the cost to bring up a productive human will eventually be subtracted from the combined wealth of the society.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)19:50 No.3274403
    >>3274391

    >Think of all the paychecks you'd have to pay for them, not to mention medical bills and insurance or them possibly not coming in.

    They already solved this not by building incredibly complex and expensive robots, but by shipping jobs overseas to where workers' rights are nonexistent.

    That will always be the cheaper option. We keep most of the world poor to make sure it's always the cheaper option.

    I'd love to have what you're saying come true. But from a business perspective, there's just no sense in replacing a cheap human workforce with a complicated and expensive robot workforce.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)19:52 No.3274411
    >>3274395
    Well, true.

    I'm looking for a more sophisticated way though. Bruteforcing is cool, but I'd be disappointed if the future will just bring more operations-per-second

    Though I admit that I don't exactly know what I'm talking about.
    >> Inurdaes !V1sPhobos. 06/23/11(Thu)19:52 No.3274413
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    >>3274403
    Wrong assumption. Computer and robotic technology and continuously rocketing down in price. And how are we going to outsource the service industry? Ship Taiwanese maids to and fro to clean the rooms?
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)19:53 No.3274414
    >>3274372

    I'd trust a google made robot car more than id trust a fucking person. It would seriously be hard/impossible for it to be worse than the people i see on the road.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)19:54 No.3274418
    >>3274394

    I know all of that and i have no problem with robot cars. You have to convince the people who aren't using reason to determine that robot cars are dangerous. You have to fix the last 50 years of popular conscience robots going on a rampage before you'll get the real meat of humanity to trust them. Shit, some people will never trust cruise control, or planes that fly by themselves, but you think that they all think rationally like you and will just accept it?

    I hardly think so.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)19:54 No.3274421
    Who cares about people being replaced by machines?
    It happens every day.
    FFS, just think about how the old telephone system worked; thousands of people employed to manually switch lines and connect calls; now it's all automated. They recovered, and so will anybody else who's replaced.
    Any unemployment caused is temporary
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)19:55 No.3274424
    >>3274413

    So you have a chart that shows how each progressive Asimo model has reduced the cost since the very first one?

    Or any proof to back up this assertion?
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)19:56 No.3274429
    >>3274414
    This is just you and me, bro.

    I know a few people who completely freak out when they are not driving themselvers. Well, freaking out is exaggerated. Let's say they get really nervous.

    And how would you explain to people that accidents can possibly happen, even if the risk for an accident is lower by orders of magnitude.
    >> ႼЋïŁႣƧტƿḩЄƦṥ !Scone2booQ 06/23/11(Thu)19:56 No.3274430
    >>3274368
    >There's NO chance of technology becoming to cheap and efficient to displace 50% of the population with not enough adequate work to replace it for the relatively uneducated workers.
    Again, this already happened, but it was more like 80% or 90%.

    When there are not jobs, new jobs are necessarily created. No matter how much wealth is being created via automation, people need to work, to have something to trade for that wealth. This causes and caused a positive feedback loop of increasing wealth. Today our machines make our food and clothes and durable goods, and we make our money doing less essential things. But those less essential things -- like delivering pizza, and industry that a poorer culture couldn't come close to affording -- add to our wealth and standard of living. When some of those things are replaced, we'll find even more things to do, which will further add to the goods and services available to our community, ad infinitum.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)19:57 No.3274432
    >>3274421
    And economics will be more perilously perched on the capricious whims of inane consumption of valueless products.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)19:57 No.3274435
    It's quite possible that brute forcing is the only method of playing Go.
    The answer to that question is one of the biggest unsolved problems in computer science (P vs NP).
    If there isn't a "smart" way then logically our brain is just brute forcing it as well.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)19:58 No.3274436
    >>3274429

    This. One accident early on would doom the entire concept. People are really unforgiving to technology.

    Remember the Hindenburg. Lighter-than air travel took a sharp dive.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)19:58 No.3274440
    >>3274432
    Yay.
    >> ႼЋïŁႣƧტƿḩЄƦṥ !Scone2booQ 06/23/11(Thu)19:59 No.3274444
    >>3274421
    Exactly. All those telephone operators now work at nail salons (to simplify). So now getting a manicure isn't a luxury for the super-rich. The automation of switchboards improved our quality of life by making manicures more affordable, improving our quality of life, without increasing unemployment over the long term. That is the evolution of an economy.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)20:00 No.3274446
    >>3274432

    Hence why we have iphones instead of moon bases.

    Humanity chose ease of life over quality of life. No going back now.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)20:01 No.3274451
    >>3273835
    Looks like this thread has changed from electronic to software well a software can calculate faster then a human so makin a care drive isnt the big wonder look at military drones this have been able for many years as well as tomahawk missiles the big goal we are looking for en tecj evolution is to computer to adobt knowlegde and understand/learn it without a human force it to do so
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)20:01 No.3274452
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    >>3274060
    >>3274059
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)20:03 No.3274455
    >>3274444

    But, the transference of large volumes of women from a job which required technical experience and intelligence shifted to one that just plays off their childhood fantasies and skills. That has to of had an enormous effect on society.

    Imagine when everything is replaced by robots and nobody ever has to work. How many of us will just sit on the internet all day, never doing anything or seeking a higher education?

    Damned if we do, damned if we don't. Ahh, life.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)20:03 No.3274456
    >>3274444
    >Exactly, now people fulfill needless desires and extrapolate more useless freedoms so they can be completely incapacitated.

    >wallE
    >> ႼЋïŁႣƧტƿḩЄƦṥ !Scone2booQ 06/23/11(Thu)20:05 No.3274463
    >>3274432
    Well, yes... that may well be.
    >> ႼЋïŁႣƧტƿḩЄƦṥ !Scone2booQ 06/23/11(Thu)20:09 No.3274476
    >>3274455
    >But, the transference of large volumes of women from a job which required technical experience and intelligence shifted to one that just plays off their childhood fantasies and skills. That has to of had an enormous effect on society
    Er, I don't believe for a second that being a phone operator requires more intelligence or brain activity than being a manicurist. The latter seems like the more skilled position.

    >Imagine when everything is replaced by robots and nobody ever has to work.
    Again, that will never happen. 90% of your essentials are produced by robots. You still have to produce something that someone wants, so you can trade it for those essentials, regardless of who or what is producing them. That's the point. People will always have to work in order to have a stake in the game.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)20:13 No.3274490
    >>3274224
    >>3274236

    The chemicals that are responsible for a human brain's function exist in all of nature, even plants, fungi, and simpler life. And every single animal has some sort of nervous system. All life possesses some ability to intelligently react to it's environment.

    It thus stands to reason that all life possesses some level of consciousness. Any argument to the contrary can be applied to other human beings.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)20:16 No.3274495
    >Again, that will never happen. 90% of your essentials are produced by robots. You still have to produce something that someone wants, so you can trade it for those essentials, regardless of who or what is producing them. That's the point. People will always have to work in order to have a stake in the game.

    You're saying that we'll have gainful employment for 90% of the population while 90% of everything that needs to be made is made by robots?

    Care to explain what? And why those jobs can't be done by robots at that point?
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)20:17 No.3274501
    >>3274490

    Oxygen, Heat, and Fuel exist everywhere. By your logic, everything should be on fire.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)20:21 No.3274515
    >>3274495
    All you need to posit is a awesome widget, so awesome that 100% of the population will want one. This widget is so awesome that is complete non fungible, and can only be produced by Gucci.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)20:23 No.3274523
    >>3274490
    I wouldn't call conciousness if on animals that don't recognize themselves in a mirror

    The thing I'm interested why our ability to archieve conciousness proved to be superior to other animals size and deadliness
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)20:28 No.3274541
    >>3274361

    http://marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm

    The moment automation becomes cheaper then employing people (And it will, just look at self-check out), companies will fire everyone.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)20:29 No.3274543
    Am I not correct in assuming that the whole point of a technological singularity is that no one will be able to predict the outcome of it?
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)20:31 No.3274547
    >>3274543

    Apparently not since ray kurzweil has made a career on making shit up about the singularity.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)20:35 No.3274559
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    >>3274543
    You'd be right if you pointed out that a singularity by definition, axiomaticly, is undefinable.
    >> ႼЋïŁႣƧტƿḩЄƦṥ !Scone2booQ 06/23/11(Thu)20:38 No.3274567
    >>3274495
    >Care to explain what?
    This is already the case. AT LEAST 90% of what used to be manual labor to grow/pick/slaughter your food, manufacture the nails and boards for your house, is now mechanized, and those jobs were transferred to other, less essential industries.

    >And why those jobs can't be done by robots at that point?
    1) Because there will always be things that people can do but machines cannot, because (in non-science-fiction) machines aren't people.
    2) It takes years or decades to figure out how to automate a given job... even if you assumed that machines can think like people and therefore do any job.
    3) Again, even if you assume that machines can do literally everything people can do, there is always a luxury premium on "hand made". People will probably always pay more for their nails to be done or hair to be cut by a person rather than a machine. Certainly people will pay a premium to have a human therapist rather than a machine one. Or art or philosophy created by a human rather than a machine.
    >> ႼЋïŁႣƧტƿḩЄƦṥ !Scone2booQ 06/23/11(Thu)20:40 No.3274576
    >>3274523
    Certain drugs will render you incapable of recognizing yourself in the mirror, but you're still conscious.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)20:43 No.3274590
    >3274567

    >1) Because there will always be things that people can do but machines cannot, because (in non-science-fiction) machines aren't people.

    Like what?

    >2) It takes years or decades to figure out how to automate a given job... even if you assumed that machines can think like people and therefore do any job.

    But that means that all jobs will be replaced, it's just a matter of time.

    >3) Again, even if you assume that machines can do literally everything people can do, there is always a luxury premium on "hand made". People will probably always pay more for their nails to be done or hair to be cut by a person rather than a machine. Certainly people will pay a premium to have a human therapist rather than a machine one. Or art or philosophy created by a human rather than a machine.

    That really depends on culture and society not changing. It might be big, or they might be considered the Amish of the singularity. I don't think the current generation reveres hand made things as much as our parent's generation. Not everyone is hank hill.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)20:46 No.3274597
    I saw a program on that dude who wrote those books about the singularity. It's pretty clear the guy's predictions are twisted by his own fear of death.

    I'm all for the technological singularities theoretical basis, but the utopian shit that he has built up is ridiculous.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)20:50 No.3274610
    >>3274597
    I can't wait for the inevitable p-zombie transhuman war vs normals
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)20:52 No.3274614
    >>3274610

    everyone is a p-zombie.
    >> ႼЋïŁႣƧტƿḩЄƦṥ !Scone2booQ 06/23/11(Thu)20:54 No.3274617
    >>3274590
    >But that means that all jobs will be replaced, it's just a matter of time.
    If you accept that machines can do everything humans can do, yes, just like in history, and just like in history, every time a machine replaces a job, new jobs are created that machines can't yet do.

    >don't think the current generation reveres hand made things as much as our parent's generation. Not everyone is hank hill.
    Not everyone has to value it. As long as some people value it, there will be premiums for human labor, which humans will partake in to earn a portion of society's wealth.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)20:59 No.3274625
    >>3274617

    You can't use historical precedence. Looms aren't humanoid robots.

    If we do it right. There will be no further use for humanity other than sheer existence. IMO: this is the only point of our species.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)21:08 No.3274635
    >>3274614
    >And thus, the p-zombie war began
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)21:09 No.3274639
    >>3274635
    >and subsequently ended
    There were no non-p-zombies to begin with, so the p-zombies win by default.
    >> ႼЋïŁႣƧტƿḩЄƦṥ !Scone2booQ 06/23/11(Thu)21:10 No.3274640
    >>3274625
    What does it matter if a robot is humanoid, or shaped like a tractor?
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)21:11 No.3274642
    >>3274639
    >forgets that p-zombies don't need to believe they're p-zombies

    I'm not a p-zombie you fucker.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)21:14 No.3274647
    >>3274640

    Human sized and shaped robots should ideally be able to do anything we can? and can be adapted to new jobs as easily as a human?
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)21:15 No.3274648
    >>3274642
    Unless you are the marionette with ethereal strings being pulled by a magical cloud of consciousness from another universe... then yeah, you're a p-zombie.
    >> ႼЋïŁႣƧტƿḩЄƦṥ !Scone2booQ 06/23/11(Thu)21:16 No.3274653
    >>3274647
    We create robots in sizes and shapes that are ideal for the task. A tractor is farm more ideal a configuration for plowing and reaping than a humanoid. Same with a welding robot, and just about anything else. That's why real-world robots aren't humanoid.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)21:17 No.3274656
    >>3274642
    Then I guess this war will be over quick.
    *pumps shotgun*
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)21:18 No.3274663
    >>3274653

    And a humanoid robot is ideal for the task of replacing humanoid workers. They can drive the combines that already exist. A universally adaptable robot has far more appeal than a one off specialist model. It'll be the cheapest and therefore the most likely.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)21:19 No.3274667
    >>3274648
    >doesn't realize how the war between transhuman p-zombies and normals starts.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)21:20 No.3274674
         File1308878454.jpg-(56 KB, 300x225, arctic_series.jpg)
    56 KB
    >>3274656
    *pumps 1 watt blue laser* How can you kill me if you can't see me?
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)21:23 No.3274685
    >>3274674
    >... Mr. Anderson
    Well played.
    >> снайпер 06/23/11(Thu)21:28 No.3274696
    >>3274567
    As computers and robots become as capable as people, or often, more capable, they are going to replace more and more jobs.

    Automation pushed people out of manufacturing because robots were vastly superior, cheaper, faster, more efficient, etc.

    The jobs we have today mostly cannot be done by robots at a competitive price point. But that is changing as the technology develops.

    The fundamental reason that robots are not fully replacing people, is that people still have something about them that is superior to robots - their brain. But machine intelligence is not static, we have self-driving cars now, how long do you think it will be before truckdrivers no longer exist and all goods are transported by self driving vehicles?

    Watson is already showing that we could replace doctors with a machine for diagnosis.

    There are "attacks" on almost every level, where people can or will soon be replaced by automation. What new jobs, what new industry, is going to spring up that will employ the vast majority of humanity, and that intelligent automation will be unable to do?
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)21:29 No.3274698
         File1308878984.jpg-(3 KB, 250x186, matrixneo2.jpg)
    3 KB
    >>3274685
    Thank you.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)21:33 No.3274706
    Can they make me young again? :-(
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)21:34 No.3274713
         File1308879287.jpg-(70 KB, 800x581, old-people-are-useless.jpg)
    70 KB
    >>3274696
    This is all true if we start picture humans are just bits in a machine and the corruption of a few bits meaningless to the machine's processes.

    The axiom supposed here is that individuality is meaningless.
    >> ႼЋïŁႣƧტƿḩЄƦṥ !Scone2booQ 06/23/11(Thu)21:52 No.3274786
    >>3274696
    When machines do all the mundane jobs, all the humans can be artists and philosophers.
    >> Anonymous 06/23/11(Thu)21:55 No.3274797
    >>3274786
    >thinks theres anything left to do when theres nothing left to do



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