>> |
04/20/09(Mon)23:31 No.89726>>89594 Your link proves that it won't work in America.
>Of
course, the crucial assumption here is that 20 per cent of people make
one trip by public transport each day, which roughly corresponds to
public transport being used for 20 per cent of all trips - supposedly a
State Government policy objective. If the mode share is only 3 per
cent, as in most Melbourne suburbs at present, then the density
required for viable public transport goes up proportionally - by our
calculations, to 90 per hectare instead of 13.5 per hectare. And if
concession passengers represent 90% of boardings, rather than just 50%,
this pushes the figure up again, to a massive 123 per hectare. Very few
parts of Melbourne record population densities this high.
>This
basic observation lies at the root of road lobby calculations (like
those by Alan Moran above) purporting to show that viable public
transport requires the kind of enormous population densities seen only
in crowded cities like New York, Paris or Singapore. Basically, if you
assume that drastic improvements in service frequency (from typically
40-60 minutes at present to 10 minutes in our scenario) don't induce
more people to use the service, it's not surprising the improvement
turns out hard to justify!
You can run a bus every minute, 20% of people aren't going to ride it. |