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02/05/10(Fri)18:52 No. 202579 >>202571 Since "the
answer to 'wars of national liberation'" will, in this instance,
require an effort that is expensive, time-consuming, and frustrating,
and since Saigon and Washington cannot or will not take the necessary
steps, evidently another approach must be sought. Therefore Huntington
proposes that the Viet Cong accept an arrangement rather like that of
the Hoa Hao (who, he asserts, went through the typical evolution:
development of social and political consciousness, confrontation with
the Central Government, defeat by the Central Government, withdrawal
from the national political scene, accommodation). Given the present
"rates of urbanization and of modernization," his prognosis is that the
Viet Cong "could now degenerate into the protest of a declining rural
minority increasingly dependent upon outside support" (though at one
time, prior to "urbanization and modernization," the Viet Cong "had the
potential for developing into a truly comprehensive revolutionary force
with an appeal to both rural and urban groups"). Suppose,
however, that the NLF refuses to be satisfied with the generous offer of
some degree of local control within the framework of national power set
by the US military and the Saigon authorities it has installed. Suppose
that the NLF is unwilling to accept an "accommodation" under which it
is likely to degenerate into a declining rural minority. Then, Mr.
Huntington explains, we can make clear that "this confrontation cannot
succeed." He does not list the methods, but they can easily be imagined.