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12/19/11(Mon)09:04 No.10348396It
is likely that Kim Jong Un’s uncle, Jang Song Thaek, will rule behind
the scenes as Kim Jong Un trains on the job. Like the transition from
Kim Il Sung to Kim Jong Il, it is likely that North Korea will focus
internally over the next few years as the country’s elite adjust to a
new balance of power. In any transition, there are those who will gain
and those who are likely to be disenfranchised, and this competition can
lead to internal conflicts.
The immediate question is the status
of the North Korean military. Kim Jong Un is officially the Vice
Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Workers Party of
Korea and was recently made a four-star general, but he has no military
experience. If the military remains committed to keeping the Kim family
at the pinnacle of leadership, then things will likely hold, at least in
the near term. There were no reports from South Korea that North
Korea’s military had entered a state of heightened alert following Kim
Jong Il’s death, suggesting that the military is on board with the
transition for now. If that holds, the country likely will remain
stable, if internally tense. |
