http://www.digitalglobe.com/images/nkorea/yongbyon_reactor_march5_2003_DG.jpg
http://www.digitalglobe.com/images/nkorea/yongbyon_sep29_04_dg.jpg
14 February 2005.
Tim Brown, Senior Fellow (the imagery guy), GlobalSecurity.org, writes:
It is a perimeter wall not a fence. Note the dark shadow it casts. And I think its premature to say that the security wall has been removed. If you look at the growth in vegetation along the perimeter wall elsewhere, it could just be that the additional vegetation has been added to break up the visible signature of the wall. The upshot is we don't know for sure what it means -- yet. rule #1 in imagery analysis is to not over-interpret.
Cryptome responds:
You are right to be doubtful, as with all photo-interpretation and moreso for intelligence itself.Still, there are several places where the shadow along the perimeter structure in two earlier photos no longer appears -- which is what caught our attention. These are places which have little or no masking vegetation.
We took into account that the month of March for 2002 and 2003 meant vegetation was leafless, while leaves were present in the September 2004 shot, thus shadows of the perimeter structure in the earlier two photos were more visible. And the angle of the shadows in the earlier two are almost identical, in late morning, while that of 2004 appears to be an hour or two later, and thus the eastern perimeter would show less shadow.
Still, the gaps appear to show no shadow at all, compared to adjacent trees and structures which do.
As we noted, there could be other means used to camouflage, or provide alternative, perimeter security, and the gaps, if any, could be intended as deceptive ploys to falsely indicate openness.
There could be other reasons to open the perimeter on the river side, including damage from river flooding.
Do you know of other, and or more recent, photos of the facility which could be more closely examined? Do you know if this is a facility which has had on-site IAEA inspections?
11 February 2005
A satellite image of North Korea's 5MW nuclear reactor, taken in September 2004 and released today by Digital Globe, appears to show that a perimeter security fence has been removed on the river side of the facility. This suggests either that other security measures have been provided or that this facility, the first built, is no longer a crucial part of the larger complex shown here:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/dprk/yongbyon-imagery.htm
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/dprk/yongbyon-5.htm
It is not clear if other parts of the larger nuclear complex have modified security measures.
Thanks to A for noting the lack of security around this facility compared to that of the larger complex.
| Perimeter fence removed.
|
