5 September 1998
Source: Anonymous via Bill Payne

[Lecture overlays]

Fall Leadership Program

"Looking to the future: A more dangerous world is appearing."

C. Paul Robinson

Director and President,
Sandia National Laboratories

August 19, 1998

Sandia National Laboratories

CPR:1

The "Rumsfield Commission" has delivered a serious wake-up call.

• Chartered by 1997 Defense Authorization

• Given "blanket access" to information on the emerging threats to the US from ballistic missiles

• Asked to estimate the timelines and potential for intelligence warning of such threats

CPR- 2

The Rumsfield Commission -

the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States

[Executive Summary: BMThreat.htm]

• Donald Rumsfeld

• Larry Welch

• Bill Schneider

• Bill Graham

• Barry Bleckman

• Richard Garwin

• Lee Butler

CPR:3

The Rumsfield Commission reported and even more frightening condition

A rapid and extensive worldwide proliferation is emerging:

• nuclear weapons

• other weapons of mass destruction

• ballistic missile delivery systems

CPR:4

The Rumsfield Commissioners unanimously concluded:

There are concerted efforts to acquire long-range ballistic missiles, nuclear weapons, and biological & chemical weapons by a multiplicity of nations.

CPR:5

The Rumsfield Commissioners unanimously concluded:

Within five years, these nations will have the capability to inflict major damage on the United States.

CPR:6

Foreign assistance and cooperation in proliferation is widespread.

Our policies have done little to retard proliferation.

• Export controls

• Nonproliferation agreements

• Strong economic considerations

• Participation by key nations

- Russia, China, North Korea, Pakistan

CPR:7

Nations are able to conceal important elements of their proliferation efforts.

• Deception and denial efforts are intense and sophisticated.

• How to build clandestine and underground facilities is a part of the technology assistance.

• Recent developments have not followed expected development paths.

CPR- 8

Perhaps the worst development in the new paths of proliferation is the new pattern of cooperation.

A counter-trade has developed in both the technology, the materials, and indeed in some cases, the actual hardware for highly destructive nuclear (and biological) weapons systems.

What one has is exchanged for what the other lacks.

CPR: 9

A quick walk around the globe: Russia

• Economy is, in a word, awful.

• Yeltsin's health is in a similar state.

• New prime minister, Sergei Kiriyenko, is inexperienced, with no political constituency.

• Line of succession requires election within 60 days.

• There is evidence of major sales and consultation in sales of nuclear, WMD, ballistic missiles, and submarines.
  
  Note: US President vetoed bill condemning Russia for sales to Iran.

• There is potential for further break-up.

CPR: 10

A quick walk around the globe: China

• Gave essential technical and material assistance to Pakistan, as well as to North Korea.

• Continues to be a major WMD technology, equipment, and factory supplier to many nations of the third world.

• Supplied complete ballistic missile systems to Saudi Arabia.

• In an uncertain political transition; major defense industries are still owned by military.

• The Taiwan situation has the potential to result in major conflict between the US and China.

CPR: 11

A quick walk around the globe: India

• World's largest democracy, but don't be confused the caste system still predominates.

• Detonated its first nuclear device in 1974.

• Recent tests were not proliferation, they were an "annunciation."

• Developing ballistic missiles of both short and ICBM ranges, along with submarine and surface launch plafforms all for nuclear delivery.

• Has biological and chemical weapons programs.

• Internal political weakness cannot control export of WMD technologies.

CPR: 12

A quick walk around the globe: Pakistan

• Missile technology best in third world--China and North Korea major suppliers.

• Nuclear arsenal mature and significant in size: initial designs were uranium, now producing plutonium.

• Possesses indigenous production for missiles.

• Have biological and chemical weapons programs.

• They have been traditionally a client state of China.

• A third-world economy (worse than most) puts all WMD technology and material for sale.

CPR: 13

A quick walk around the globe: Iran

• Placing extraordinary interest in its WMD and ballistic missile programs.

• Programs benefit from a broad, long-time assistance from Russia.

• Development programs have taken on a new phase--getting Russia's most modern equipment.

• Getting assistance from China, North Korea, Pakistan as well.

• Able to pay well for military technology in $.

• Has nuclear weapons and chemical weapons programs, researching biological weapons.

• Israel a wild card in concerns about Iran's WMD.

CPR: 14

A quick walk around the globe: North Korea

• The only strict Communist military dictatorship left.

• Ballistic missile development programs well-developed.

• Serves as a major exporter (proliferator) of missiles.

• Assessed to have one or two nuclear weapons, may have substantially more.

• Have mature biological and chemical weapons programs, including the ability to deliver these from missiles.

• State is bankrupt facing extreme food shortages.

• Has made large investments over time in building its key defense facilities deeply buried underground.

• Is a major proliferant supplier throughout third world.

CPR: 16

A quick walk around the globe: other emerging threat nations

• Libya

• Egypt

• Yemen

• Syria

• Iraq

• Others

What is perhaps most frightening is the apparent increase in the flow of technology, hardware, and a "barter system" in dangerous materials. We must understand "What are their motives?"

CPR: 16

Can the US fail to address all major threats to its security from any nation whose nuclear weapons (or other WMD) arsenals pose a substantial risk to the US?

CPR: 17

The Rumsfield conclusions reveal a major failure in current US policies.

• The lack of a national security policy is now becoming a "de facto" policy of its own.
  
  - Appeasement, rather than holding accountable?

• Policies to contain technologies for weapons of mass destruction are not working.

• Our diplomatic actions in dealing with these foreign nations are largely disconnected from the threats.

• "Never look back. Something might be gaining on you. Leroy Satchel Paige
  
  >>> When I stop running, everybody is passing me.

CPR: 18

There are solme promising steps being taken within the Pentagon.

• Formation of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency
  
  - Led by Jay Davis (LLNL Associate Director, IPA)
  
  - To develop concepts for countering BW and CW
  
  - To "own" US nuclear weapons requirements

• Joint Vision 2010

• Designation of US Atlantic Command as the command to develop responses to new threats
  
  - For terrorist attacks on CONUS
  
  - To "experiment" with hardware and tactics

CPR: 19

What should Sandia be doing?

• Increase our emphasis on the SBU "Emerging National Security Threats."

• Work with the Defense Threat Reduction Agency and with the US Strategic Command to ensure that US nuclear weapons are appropriate to deal with new threats.

• Shift much of our advanced concepts thinking to deal with a wider spectrum of nations and threats.

• Develop means to make better use of our Intelligence component to help guide our directions and technical responses.

• Team more effectively labs-wide, and with our sister labs, to lead a national response.

CPR: 20

[End]

See also:

trac071598.htm     Threat Reduction Advisory Committee Launched
wmd-export.htm     Tightening Weapons Export Controls
wc071598.htm       DoD's Cohen on Weapons of Mass Destruction
wh071598.htm       White House on RU Weapons Technology Probe
hd105-271.htm      Report to Congress on Proliferation of WMD
dod-rra-wmd.htm    DoD on Regional Rapid Assessment of WMD
dod-wmd            DoD Policy: Weapons of Mass Destruction
nuke-future        Spread of WMD and US Nuclear Strategy
wmd-lugar.txt      Sen Lugar: Combating WMD
mercier.htm        Terrorists, WMD, and the US Army Reserve