Analytic Thinking and Presentation for Intelligence Producers

22 July 2000. Hironari Noda gives permission to reveal his name as source of this document. Mr. Noda is a former officer of Japan's Public Security Investigation Agency.

15 July 2000. Thanks to SK.

[8 pages.]

OFFICIAL USE ONLY

ANALYTIC THINKING AND PRESENTATION

FOR INTELLIGENCE PRODUCERS

Special Running for
Government Officials of Japan

30 August - 3 September 93

Conducted By

Office of Training and Education

OFFICIAL USE ONLY

COURSE OBJECTIVES

This training is designed to help participants gain added skill in analytic thinking and in written and oral presentation through rigorous study of the principles of effective argumentation, expository composition, and oral briefing, and intensive drill in applying these principles in practical problem-solving situations and other exercises that simulate the challenges that intelligence analysts face. Upon completion of the course, the participants will have improved their ability to:

-- Define the analytic mission, which has much to do with the way analysts need to think, write, and speak.
-- Describe and use the "Conceptualization Process"-- a deliberate strategy by which analysts can crystallize, focus, and array effective lines of reasoning in all forms of finished intelligence.
-- Describe and use the expository writing style and explain the emphasis it places on structure, clarity, precision, brevity, vigor, and concreteness.
-- Produce drafts of selected finished intelligence items within specific time and format limits, using raw information.
-- Deliver analysis in a well-structured oral intelligence briefing.
-- Understand the role of Warning in intelligence and how it expands beyond analysts' regular interpretive and forecasting duties.
-- Understand our organization's standards and practices of personnel management and employee performance evaluation.

MONDAY, Day 1

0830-0900 Course Overview and Administration
The Course Director will discuss the course's scope, aims, content, and instructional method.

0900-1000 Orientation to the Organization

1000-1015 Break

1015-1200 Understanding the Analytic Mission
The nature of the intelligence analysis profession has much to do with the way analysts need to think and write. The instructor will seek to establish a clear and shared understanding of the analytic mission by examining the role of the analyst, the function of analysis, the concept of threshold, the substantive aim of finished intelligence, and the needs of policymakers and other consumers of finished intelligence.

1200-1300 Lunch

1300-1400 Conceptualizing and Crafting Intelligence
You will learn the conceptualization process -- a deliberate strategy by which to do analysis. This process allows you to crystallize, focus, and set forth cogent and compelling lines of reasoning. With this method you can "package" any intelligence product -- whether it's a paper you have to write or an oral briefing you have to give. You will practice the conceptualization process throughout the course.

1400-1415 Break

1415-1530 Communicating Through Analytic Writing
Expository writing is clear and concise communication that stresses above all else the importance of clear expressions and precise wording. The instructor will discuss these principles so that you can begin applying them in the course.

1530-1630 Focusing on What Consumers Need
Consumers of our products are busy people, and the time constraints they face influence the formats we use to present our analysis. We seek above all else to give our readers a bottom line -- one overall analytic message they can grasp quickly with no misunderstanding. We can speed the process by which we come up with this bottom line by using an approach called focusing. You will begin a series of exercises this afternoon to hone your ability to focus by making use of the conceptualization process and expository writing principles we have discussed today.

TUESDAY, Day 2

0830-1200 Crafting Finished Intelligence: Part I
Beginning now and continuing until noon, the class as a group will work with the instructor to learn how to use a methodical approach to analytic thinking and writing that we call the conceptualization process to crystallize, focus, and array effective argumentation. Students during this segment will apply the method in the first of a series of increasingly complex exercises designed to simulate the analytic thinking and writing challenges that analysts face when seeking to craft well-reasoned and well-written finished intelligence.

1200-1300 Lunch

1300-1630 Crafting Finished Intelligence: Part II
Each student will use the concepts and methods learned in the class thus far to conceptualize and draft a short four-paragraph item based on an analysis of raw information. This segment is designed to continue adding to the students' analytic thinking and writing skills, with emphasis on focus, organization, clarity, precision, and brevity.

WEDNESDAY, Day 3

0830-0930 Understanding the Structure of Analysis Publications
The instructor will discuss the shortform publication format for finished intelligence and explain how it exemplifies many of the features of the intermediate and longform formats. All three formats -- shortform, intermediate, and longform -- are the basis for structuring the full range of finished intelligence publications.

0930-1000 Preparing Topic-Sentence Outlines
Doing a topic-sentence outline saves you great amounts of time, effort, and frustration in preparing written drafts, The instructor will provide guidance on ways to use topic-sentence outlines to ensure orderly and logical presentation of material in finished intelligence products.

1000-1015 Break

1015-1630 Crafting Finished Intelligence: Part III
Beginning now and continuing through the rest of today, the students will use the concepts and methods learned in the class thus far to conceptualize and draft a shortform item based on an analysis of raw information. This segment is designed to continue adding to students' analytic thinking and writing skills by illustrating teaching points applicable to the planning and production of all forms of finished intelligence.
(Students will break for lunch from 1200 to 1300)

THURSDAY, Day 4

0830-0900 Review

0900-1000 Focusing Exercises

1000-1015 Break

1015-1115 Preparing and Delivering an Intelligence Briefing
We all need to make a point orally to someone or communicate our judgments and expertise to different audiences. This segment offers you principles and techniques for giving an effective oral presentation.

1115-1130 Break

1130-1200 Question and Discussion Session

1200-1300 Lunch

1300-1630 The Role of Warning in the Intelligence Mission
The speaker will lead the class in a discussion of the Warning function and examine how this builds upon and expands beyond analysts' regular interpretive and forecasting duties.[*]

FRIDAY, Day 5

[By hand] Mr. Martin Petersen ("Marty") senior manag[cropped]

0830-1030 Personnel Management and Employee Performance Evaluation
The speaker will discuss the concepts and methods behind good supervisory practices as we define them and will examine the ways that supervisors assess employees' job performance and potential for professional growth.

1030-1045 Break

1045-1200 Doing "Opportunity Analysis" and Dealing With Uncertainty
The speaker will address these special features and challenges of the analysis profession.

1200-1300 Lunch

1300-1400 Ensuring Analytic Integrity
As intelligence analysts, we have to understand the need for objectivity and balance and know how to recognize and avoid bias. We have to broaden our analytic approach to problems, avoid analytic pitfalls we face in making judgments, and deal with implicit or explicit pressure to slant analysis for policy reasons. This segment will explore these issues and examine ways of coping with them.

1400-1415 Break

1415-1430 Recommendations for Further Study

1430-1500 Review and Concluding Remarks

1500-1600 Administration and Students' End-of-Course Evaluation

Transcription and HTML by Cryptome.

Note on "warning function:"

From: "Allen Thomson" <thomsona@flash.net>
To: <intelforum@his.com>
Subject: Re: Warning Function
Date: Sat, 15 Jul 2000 14:32:29 -0500

John Young inquired,

What is "the Warning function?" The rest of the outline is understandable but this is not.

Basically a call that something bad, or at least important, is likely to happen in the near future. Warning of war is the most dramatic example, but a warning of an impending coup in an important country would qualify.

The information can come either from specific sources or from compiled information. In the US, there has been a National Intelligence Officer for Warning whose job was to coordinate various activities to try to avoid such embarrassments as Pearl Harbor -- I don't know whether the post still exists.

Intelligence Forum (http://www.intelforum.org) is sponsored by Intelligence and National Security, a Frank Cass journal (http://www.frankcass.com/jnls/ins.htm)

MONDAY, Day 1

0830-0900	Course Overview and Administration The Course Director will discuss the course's scope, aims, content, and instructional method.
0900-1000	Orientation to the Organization
1000-1015	Break
1015-1200	Understanding the Analytic Mission The nature of the intelligence analysis profession has much to do with the way analysts need to think and write. The instructor will seek to establish a clear and shared understanding of the analytic mission by examining the role of the analyst, the function of analysis, the concept of threshold, the substantive aim of finished intelligence, and the needs of policymakers and other consumers of finished intelligence.
1200-1300	Lunch
1300-1400	Conceptualizing and Crafting Intelligence You will learn the conceptualization process -- a deliberate strategy by which to do analysis. This process allows you to crystallize, focus, and set forth cogent and compelling lines of reasoning. With this method you can "package" any intelligence product -- whether it's a paper you have to write or an oral briefing you have to give. You will practice the conceptualization process throughout the course.
1400-1415	Break
1415-1530	Communicating Through Analytic Writing Expository writing is clear and concise communication that stresses above all else the importance of clear expressions and precise wording. The instructor will discuss these principles so that you can begin applying them in the course.
1530-1630	Focusing on What Consumers Need Consumers of our products are busy people, and the time constraints they face influence the formats we use to present our analysis. We seek above all else to give our readers a bottom line -- one overall analytic message they can grasp quickly with no misunderstanding. We can speed the process by which we come up with this bottom line by using an approach called focusing. You will begin a series of exercises this afternoon to hone your ability to focus by making use of the conceptualization process and expository writing principles we have discussed today.

TUESDAY, Day 2

0830-1200	Crafting Finished Intelligence: Part I Beginning now and continuing until noon, the class as a group will work with the instructor to learn how to use a methodical approach to analytic thinking and writing that we call the conceptualization process to crystallize, focus, and array effective argumentation. Students during this segment will apply the method in the first of a series of increasingly complex exercises designed to simulate the analytic thinking and writing challenges that analysts face when seeking to craft well-reasoned and well-written finished intelligence.
1200-1300	Lunch
1300-1630	Crafting Finished Intelligence: Part II Each student will use the concepts and methods learned in the class thus far to conceptualize and draft a short four-paragraph item based on an analysis of raw information. This segment is designed to continue adding to the students' analytic thinking and writing skills, with emphasis on focus, organization, clarity, precision, and brevity.

WEDNESDAY, Day 3

0830-0930	Understanding the Structure of Analysis Publications The instructor will discuss the shortform publication format for finished intelligence and explain how it exemplifies many of the features of the intermediate and longform formats. All three formats -- shortform, intermediate, and longform -- are the basis for structuring the full range of finished intelligence publications.
0930-1000	Preparing Topic-Sentence Outlines Doing a topic-sentence outline saves you great amounts of time, effort, and frustration in preparing written drafts, The instructor will provide guidance on ways to use topic-sentence outlines to ensure orderly and logical presentation of material in finished intelligence products.
1000-1015	Break
1015-1630	Crafting Finished Intelligence: Part III Beginning now and continuing through the rest of today, the students will use the concepts and methods learned in the class thus far to conceptualize and draft a shortform item based on an analysis of raw information. This segment is designed to continue adding to students' analytic thinking and writing skills by illustrating teaching points applicable to the planning and production of all forms of finished intelligence. (Students will break for lunch from 1200 to 1300)

THURSDAY, Day 4

0830-0900	Review
0900-1000	Focusing Exercises
1000-1015	Break
1015-1115	Preparing and Delivering an Intelligence Briefing We all need to make a point orally to someone or communicate our judgments and expertise to different audiences. This segment offers you principles and techniques for giving an effective oral presentation.
1115-1130	Break
1130-1200	Question and Discussion Session
1200-1300	Lunch
1300-1630	The Role of Warning in the Intelligence Mission The speaker will lead the class in a discussion of the Warning function and examine how this builds upon and expands beyond analysts' regular interpretive and forecasting duties.[*]

FRIDAY, Day 5
	[By hand] Mr. Martin Petersen ("Marty") senior manag[cropped]
0830-1030	Personnel Management and Employee Performance Evaluation The speaker will discuss the concepts and methods behind good supervisory practices as we define them and will examine the ways that supervisors assess employees' job performance and potential for professional growth.
1030-1045	Break
1045-1200	Doing "Opportunity Analysis" and Dealing With Uncertainty The speaker will address these special features and challenges of the analysis profession.
1200-1300	Lunch
1300-1400	Ensuring Analytic Integrity As intelligence analysts, we have to understand the need for objectivity and balance and know how to recognize and avoid bias. We have to broaden our analytic approach to problems, avoid analytic pitfalls we face in making judgments, and deal with implicit or explicit pressure to slant analysis for policy reasons. This segment will explore these issues and examine ways of coping with them.
1400-1415	Break
1415-1430	Recommendations for Further Study
1430-1500	Review and Concluding Remarks
1500-1600	Administration and Students' End-of-Course Evaluation