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The Answer to So Many Questions Remains: ‘We’ll Wait and See’

By Gina Chon

You hear the phrase “wait and see” a lot these days when it comes to Iraq. Is Iran honoring its pledge to try to stop support of militia groups in Iraq? “We’ll have to wait and see.” Is the security situation here sustainable? “We’ll have to wait and see.”

U.S. and Iraqi officials say the security situation is improving, but they always caution that the fight isn’t over yet. They are just being pragmatic because they know how easily it could move backward. If anti-American Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr decides to end his cease fire or another mosque bombing ignites sectarian tension, for instance, the violence could easily flare up again.

U.S. military spokesman Rear Admiral Gregory Smith said about two weeks ago that based on recent weapons cache discoveries, it seemed like Iran was honoring its pledge to stop munitions from entering Iraq. But after a pet market bombing in Baghdad on Friday, Admiral Smith said on Saturday that the group responsible for that explosion had Iranian support. Today, Brigadier General James Yarbrough, head of the Iraqi Assistance Group, said he was taking a “wait and see attitude” to see if Iran was going to honor its pledge. “The willingness of Iran to stop the fighting helps but it’s too early to tell,” he said.

One of the first things you learn about Iraq is how quickly the situation changes. An Iraqi colleague of mine said he always laughs when he sees a Western commentator or Western analysis piece that predicts what will happen in Iraq. “I was born here and lived here for more than 20 years and I cannot predict what will happen tomorrow,” he says with a big grin. “In Iraq, anything can happen.”

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