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Under U.S. Pressure, Al Qaeda in Iraq Shifts Tactics

By Gina Chon

With the U.S. military routing al Qaeda in Iraq out of the country’s urban population centers and into rural areas, the terrorist group has been forced to change its tactics and is using the northern city of Mosul as a major operations hub.

Al Qaeda in Iraq had been known for spectacular attacks that produced dozens, if not hundreds, of deaths and generated a lot of publicity, which was useful for the group’s propaganda strategy, U.S. military and intelligence officials said on Sunday.

But with al Qaeda in Iraq largely cleared out of Baghdad, the western Anbar province and other areas, the group’s attacks have been more targeted toward infrastructure and the Concerned Local Citizens, groups of mainly Sunni security volunteers that now are on the American side of the fight. A senior intelligence official also noted the differences between current al Qaeda in Iraq leader Abu Ayyub al-Masri and his predecessor, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who was killed in June 2006. Zarqawi was known to be totally ruthless and endorsed attacks that killed indiscriminately, while Masri has been relatively less brutal, the senior intelligence official said.

But a senior military official also pointed out that Zarqawi didn’t face the challenges that Masri faces, including an American troop surge and the birth of the Sunni “Awakening,” which has caused former insurgents to stop fighting American and Iraqi forces. The formation of local security volunteers has also robbed al Qaeda in Iraq of its recruiting base, and they are scrambling to replace members and leaders, who have also been captured or killed.

In a press briefing today, Rear Admiral Gregory Smith highlighted the accomplishments achieved in fighting al Qaeda in Iraq in 2007 and the work left to be done. Last year, coalition forces captured, 8,800 al Qaeda in Iraq members, while an additional 2,400 were killed. Smith also said the number of foreign fighters coming to Iraq has been reduced from 110 a month last summer to 40-50 entering Iraq a month now. According to captured al Qaeda in Iraq evidence and other intelligence, just below 50% of the foreign fighters come from Saudi Arabia. Next is Libya, Yemen, Syria, Tunisia and Morocco, and a handful from central Europe, Algeria, Egypt and Jordan. (See slides from a U.S. military briefing.)

But intelligence and military officials warn that al Qaeda in Iraq is a resilient, flexible organization and it has not yet been defeated. The fight against al Qaeda in Iraq now rests largely in the north of Baghdad in Diyala province, where major U.S. military operations have been underway, and in the Mosul area.

Smith said that future progress also depends on economic opportunities for average Iraqis, many of whom joined the insurgency to earn money. “Iraqis were deprived of any way of making a living and some chose to survive by turning to al Qaeda,” he said.

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    • I agree that al Qaeda has illicit businesses which produce both money and new volunteers to come and fight in Iraq. But if we can’tkeep the Mexicans and Columbians from burying us in drugs and “illegal”, we have no real chance to stop al Qaeda from doing the same. Al Qaeda now has access to the biggest crop of poppies in years in Afghanistan. The taliban does not like poppies. To al Qaeda it’s a cash crop.

    • I agre with Henry, people that uses or deals drugs have the blood of American in their hands. They are supporting Al Qaeda.

    • I’m no scholar on the subject, but I’m pretty certain al Qaeda has many illicit and licit activities which help siphon money into the organization. These activities, if I am correct, include drug growing/dealing/exporting, gun and weapons trafficking, as well as collecting donations from sympathetic groups and wealthy anti-American/anti-Westerner.

      This money is then filtered through the organization, some which is used to pay the organization members and some is used to pay the organization members’ families, in the case of members who have died.

    • Who is paying the Iraqis to join the al Qaeda?