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A video headend located in Chicago can send video products (most people may not want to see what comes out of Chicago, though) all across the nation, to every household. All the homeowner needs is an ATM-compatible ADSL modem. And they are getting cheaper by the month. Also, the number of channels of service is not limited as the CATV industry is. The cable industry is band (channel) limited due to the characteristics of the coaxial cable transport infrastructure. In the ATM over ADSL approach, only one channel is transmitted but the user quickly and easily orders a new channel over the upstream data channel and voila...just like changing channels on the old set. But the old set remains on just one channel, say Channel 2. The video service provider receives the change request from the viewer and immediately switches the video source from one video signal to another. Guess what? Channels become limited by the number of channels that can be represented by 16 (or 32) binary digits and the number of channels service providers can supply. Does anyone have time to surf 65,536 channels?
From a consumer perspective, I can receive video products from any video products supplier (remember the national/international ATM networks), regardless of their physical location. Okay, so a one-hour show originating in Copenhagen and viewed in Dallas might cost the viewer $25, but have you ever seen some of the shows originating in Copenhagen? Lets see, 65,536 possible channels to view, one life to live. Where is a good genome project when you need one?
Current applications for ADSL modems are limited to remote access to enterprise networks from the few locations where telephone companies have installed ATM/ADSL switch gear. RBOCs and others have ordered new CO equipment to enable ADSL technology. Be patient...okay, weve waited long enough. Wheres the channel selector?
The current price of ADSL modems puts them out of reach of the average homeowner. However, if you are considering installing ISDN, perhaps you should consider ADSL as an economical alternative. Even with a $1,000 price tag, the ADSL modem is competitive with ISDN installation (about $1,500) and the monthly charge for ADSL is the price of a copper wire telephone line. Internet and remote LAN access via ADSL is possible today, if you have an ADSL modem.
No one is offering any video related services for ADSL transmission, yet. Since there are few, if any, ADSL modems in the home, there is no market for ADSL-based video products, yet. This market will bud in 1998 and blossom in 1999. By 2005, we will wonder what ever became of cable TV.
ATM over ADSL allows remote access to server-based networks from the home economically. No, you dont have to pay for an ISDN line (fiber to the curb) to have Ethernet speed on the home computer. Mobile workers, telecommuters, and branch offices have easy access to the enterprise networks using dial-up servers. When laptop manufacturers begin installing ADSL boards in laptops, workers will have dial-up access at Ethernet speed anywhere they can find a phone line to connect to.
Audio, video, Internet, multimedia, LANs, video conferencing, video telephony, and the list goes on and on and on and.... Now is the time for all good entrepreneurs to come to the aid of the consumer. As citizens of this great and beautiful country we demand (nay, it is our birthrightit must be in the Constitution somewhere, look harder) to be fattened on a feast of data communication products that is only limited by the imagination of the creative minds, and the larcenous souls, among us, and the depth of our own desire to be entertained by a visual and audio extravaganza.
ADSL modems have been successfully tested in numerous trials by many telephone companies in North America and Europe. Over 30 telephone companies are known to have conducted successful technology trials. Various telephone companies are now engaged in market trials involving Internet and video services to the customer premises. Over 10,000 ADSL modems are now connected to the telephone networks around the world. In the spring of 1997, four RBOCs announced the purchase of $300,000,000 worth of ADSL modems from Alcatel (France). Semiconductor companies, including Motorola, offer DSL chipsets that consist of off-the-shelf components, programmable digital signal processors, and application specific integrated circuits (ASIC). There is a concerted effort by semiconductor manufacturers to compress the DSL technology into a single chip. Industry analysts believe the cost of ADSL modems will approach a $35 ceiling in large quantity buys, as the technology begins to pervade the networks around the world. Current ADSL modem prices may range from $200 up, depending upon the quantity ordered.
Service providers will keep POTS and N-ISDN services in place as much as possible and introduce fiber as far as possible in the loop when the opportunity arises. Improving the existing copper network may be necessary in those cases where there is feeder congestion, and rehabilitation of poor quality local loops may be necessary. However, service providers will use ATM and ADSL to enable broadband services.
Europe and Japan have mandated ATM as the preferred long-haul transmission technology. Fortune 500 companies in this country will therefore utilize ATM to connect their far-flung entities into seamless global networks, thereby paving the road for the rest of the pack. While Frame Relay and Gigabit Ethernet will live on for a while, their time is limited. As the Fortune 500 connect to ATM, the price per bit will fall and smaller companies will then migrate to ATM.
Individual vendor ATM/ADSL products will soon offer an array of data speeds both upstream and downstream. Once a subscriber has determined his or her data communications needs, a visit with an equipment supplier will quickly narrow the plethora of choices available.
2000 is the year of the ADSL modem. CO switch gear is in place, ADSL modem prices are within reach of the average homeowner, and service providers are offering interesting video products. Say goodbye to CATV.
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