Brought to you by EarthWeb
IT Library Logo

Click Here!
Click Here!

Search the site:
 
EXPERT SEARCH -----
Programming Languages
Databases
Security
Web Services
Network Services
Middleware
Components
Operating Systems
User Interfaces
Groupware & Collaboration
Content Management
Productivity Applications
Hardware
Fun & Games

EarthWeb Direct EarthWeb Direct Fatbrain Auctions Support Source Answers

EarthWeb sites
Crossnodes
Datamation
Developer.com
DICE
EarthWeb.com
EarthWeb Direct
ERP Hub
Gamelan
GoCertify.com
HTMLGoodies
Intranet Journal
IT Knowledge
IT Library
JavaGoodies
JARS
JavaScripts.com
open source IT
RoadCoders
Y2K Info

Previous Table of Contents Next


Looking back on the last 15 years, a familiar curve can be discerned. This is the technology adoption curve (or for this chapter better named "technology interest curve") depicted in Figure 5 below (taken from Rogers, 1983).


TABLE 2
Methodology-Related Papers for World Congress on Expert Systems
 
Year Applications Full papers % of total # of papers
1991 (N = 348)   8 21   8.3
1994 (N = 217) 10 14 11.0
1996 (N = 182)   7   6   7    
Total 25 41   8.8


FIGURE 5 Technology adoption curve.

In terms of interest in and impact of ES/KBS methodologies, it appears that the period 1987 to 1990 covers the Introduction and Growth stages; the period 1991 to 1993, the Maturity stage; and the period from 1994 onward, the Saturation and Decline stages.

As methodologies for KBS development are "technologies" just like all others, it is to be expected in the end that they follow the route of all others. Disappointing though this must seem to all who spent considerable effort in this area, it is a comforting thought that this is exactly how "progress" is commonly defined.

Of course, all work in the area of methodologies for KBS-development will stop in the future. However, it seems not too risky to predict that the days of encompassing KBS specific methodologies are over. Progress will mainly continue in the area of the focused approaches described in Section 1.4 with emphasis on:

  • Knowledge modeling and knowledge reuse
  • Automated knowledge acquisition, including machine learning techniques
  • Integration with related fields like (very large) databases

The wider perspective seems that ideas developed for KBS methodologies could also feed into the emerging field of knowledge management. This still lacks a coherent and consistent "view" on what it precisely stands for. As developing KBSs can be seen as an example of a knowledge management action operating on crucial aspects of knowledge like availability and maintainability, there is a need for fine-tuning methods and techniques for knowledge management with methods and techniques (and methodologies) for KBS development. The first outline of this is evidenced in Wiig (1995) who incorporates KBSs as important elements of knowledge management and also in van der Spek and de Hoog (1995) who borrow ideas and concepts from the CommonKADS methodology.


Previous Table of Contents Next

footer nav
Use of this site is subject certain Terms & Conditions.
Copyright (c) 1996-1999 EarthWeb, Inc.. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part in any form or medium without express written permission of EarthWeb is prohibited. Please read our privacy policy for details.