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4.6. FORECASTING AND MEASUREMENTCan expert systems be used to forecast and measure the effects of laws and regulations? Laws are usually passed in order to achieve a specific goal or set of goals. Often, the actual outcomes are neither desired nor predicted in advance. This research involves modeling and forecasting human behavior in a complex environment. An expert system, for example, that predicts the effect of a change in tax law must make inferences on a wide range of behavioral and environmental factors. Are such expert systems currently too complex for development? 5. FUTURE TRENDS AND SUMMARYDue to the increased necessity of handling vast amounts of knowledge and data, expert systems and artificial intelligence applications have grown considerably in a number of fields. The ability to use expert system technology to train new experts, reduce costs, and retain greater amounts of knowledge and data have led to arguments for the incorporation of expert systems into governmental and public sector institutions. Clearly, the use of expert systems in the corporate world has led the way for introduction and further implementation of a wide variety of intelligent systems in government. Government agencies must investigate the utility of expert systems to assist with their assigned functions.
Expert systems may be the means of achieving the reinvention of many government services. Specific areas in public institutions that have been identified as targeted areas of improvement and for which expert systems have been successfully utilized in the private sector are as follows. At the federal level, the reinvention of human resources management at the U.S. Office of Personnel Management is central to the government reinvention efforts. Expert systems could be used successfully in matching personnel skill sets with newly established job descriptions, right-sizing the workforce, identifying job positions no longer needed, establishing training plans that match needed job skills, performance appraisals, etc. Another major area of reinvention is procurement not only at the federal level, but also at the state level. Expert systems could assist decision-making in RFP creation, RFP evaluations, vendor evaluations, etc. Many opportunities for expert system consideration exist in revamping state services. Arizona's efforts to increase productivity in the entire civil service system, Idaho's efforts to reengineer its risk management area, Massachusetts' welfare determination that will be going from specialized caseworkers to generic caseworkers, Mississippi's review of the tax collection process, and Texas' department consolidation efforts are some examples of expert system opportunities. This chapter has discussed expert systems developed in nine countries on three continents. Development of expert systems should be encouraged in more government agencies and in more countries. Countries and agencies with more experience in expert systems development should assist other countries and agencies in improving their services with this technology. Technological innovation and knowledge sharing in government have many possibilities, including economies of scale, fewer errors and frustrations, and reduced overall cost of government. REFERENCES
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